What asset class performs best in recession?
Cash, large-cap stocks and gold can be good investments during a recession. Stocks that tend to fluctuate with the economy and cryptocurrencies can be unstable during a recession.
- Defensive sector stocks and funds.
- Dividend-paying large-cap stocks.
- Government bonds and top-rated corporate bonds.
- Treasury bonds.
- Gold.
- Real estate.
- Cash and cash equivalents.
Historically, the industries considered to be the most defensive and better placed to fare reasonably during recessions are utilities, health care, and consumer staples.
Typically at the onset of a crisis, investors usually decide to move their investments to sectors, industries, and asset classes that are considered to be “safe”. These include technology, utilities, consumer staples, and gold.
Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.
Most stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while lower-risk assets—such as gold and U.S. Treasuries—tend to appreciate.
Healthcare Providers. If any industry can be said to be recession-proof, it's healthcare. People get sick in good times and bad, so the healthcare industry isn't likely to have the same level of cutbacks or job losses that other less essential businesses may experience.
Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.
There's no such thing as a “recession-proof” investment, but some types of stocks, funds and strategies could help your portfolio better weather an economic downturn.
Rank | Asset | Average Proportion of Total Wealth |
---|---|---|
1 | Primary and Secondary Homes | 32% |
2 | Equities | 18% |
3 | Commercial Property | 14% |
4 | Bonds | 12% |
What is the most valuable asset in a time of crisis?
“Gold has long been touted as the ultimate hedge against hard times,” declares, for example, investment advisor Jay MacDonald. “They don't call it the gold standard for nothing; central banks the world over stockpile the stuff to defend the value of their currencies.”
It will give them the funds to buy stocks or other assets during the decline. Because of how precious cash can be during times of financial stress, many have said that cash is king. The phrase means that having liquid funds available can be vital because of the flexibility it provides during a crisis.
As you increase your cash reserves, investing more in assets (things that increase in value), like stocks or real estate, will pay off in the long term. The key is to invest with a 10-year outlook. During recessions, you have access to more assets for less money.
Some of the worst investments during high inflation are retail, technology, and durable goods because spending in these areas tends to drop.
CDs are primarily a safe investment. They are guaranteed by the bank to return the principal and interest earned at maturity. CDs can provide modest income during turbulent economic times like recessions when other types of investments often lose value.
Toothpaste, deodorant, shampoo, toilet paper, and other grooming and personal care items are always in demand. Offering these types of items can position your business as a vital resource for consumers during tough times. People want to look good, even when times are tough.
Gold is consistently in demand around the world, so a recession in any one region is unlikely to skew its international value. In the case of a global recession, gold is still seen as a valuable commodity because of its liquidity, and it is an easy asset to cash in on when the markets are down.
On the negative side, energy and infrastructure stocks have been the hardest-hit in recent recessions. Companies in these sectors are acutely sensitive to swings in demand. Financials stocks also can suffer during recessions because of a rising default rate and shrinking net interest margins.
So, central bankers can make money more or less expensive, but whichever way they pull the lever, it tends to favour the rich. The diamond-encrusted cherry on this deeply unpalatable cake is that not only do the rich get richer in recessions: in doing so, they actually make recessions worse for everyone else.
A downturn is merely a chance to rethink operations and devise a plan to push it forward. The business owners who go on to become multi-millionaires take option two. In fact, it's common that during or soon after a recession there's money on offer, if you are brave enough to go find it.
Who profits most in a recession?
According to McKinsey report published in 2009, recession-resistant industries include consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunication services, and utilities, among more. In 2008, the total returns to shareholders fell for all sectors by over 20%, but consumer staples was an exception to this.
Bottom line. Moving your portfolio from stocks to cash is an understandable instinct when savings rates are high and there are concerns about a possible recession. But it's important to remember that stock market investments are part of your long-term plan, and selling could have tax implications.
Consumer staples, including toothpaste, soap, and shampoo, enjoy a steady demand for their products during recessions and other emergencies, such as pandemics. Discount stores often do incredibly well during recessions because their staple products are cheaper.
Having more saved beyond the three to six months' worth of living expenses is also a good idea, especially during recessions. It can provide an additional cushion during this time. Try aiming for between nine and 12 months of living expenses, if possible.
Buy a Rental Property
Investing in rental properties can be an excellent source of passive income. Even during a recession, people still need a place to live. By purchasing residential or commercial properties and renting them out, you can generate a steady stream of income.
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